The Upshot on Today's Polls - The New York Times - 0 views
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The big picture. There were a lot of polls Wednesday, and I could go on about this poll or that one. But let’s frame it this way: Was there a single state poll that qualified as good news for the president? Maybe the Ipsos poll showing him down only a point in Arizona? Otherwise, I don’t think so.
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What is going on in Wisconsin? If anything had poll junkies talking, it was the two big and conflicting results in Wisconsin. ABC News/Washington Post, a high-quality pollster, found Joe Biden leading by … an eyebrow-raising 17 points. (Not a typo — or not a joke, as Mr. Biden might say.) Later in the day, Marquette University Law School, perhaps the most trusted pollster in the state, found him leading by five points. You probably expect me to dive in and explain the difference. Unfortunately, I don’t have answers.
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Take the ABC/Post poll. Yeah, it’s a real outlier. Mr. Biden entered the day with a nine-point lead in Wisconsin according to our poll average, and the ABC/Post result is the largest lead in the state by any public pollster this cycle. So no, I don’t think Mr. Biden is “really” up 17 points in the state.
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